Produto potencial e regra de Tayloranálise para a economia brasileira

Resumo

Since the adoption of the monetary regime for inflation targets, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has been committed to adjusting inflation to a target that is established by the National Monetary Council (CMN). As an instrument of inflationary control, the BCB uses the basic interest rate for the economy, namely the Selic rate. To define this rate, the BCB uses reaction functions, such as the Taylor Rule. Some parameters are necessary for the establishment of the Taylor Rule, and two variables are more complex to be obtained, as they are unobservable variables: the output gap and the neutral interest rate. The present work proposes to calculate the output gap, which is obtained by the difference between the actual and the potential output, the neutral interest rate and the Taylor Rule for the Brazilian economy. Since these are unobservable variables, their results are different depending on the methodology and definition used. For this reason, they are estimated by different methodologies, displaying advantages and disadvantages that will be presented throughout the course of this work. In order to accomplish so, the author analyzes the Brazilian economy from the third quarter of 1982 to the third quarter of 2020, analyzing all the recession periods dated by the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE FGV), including the most recent one, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. It is observed that in the second quarter of 2020, the output gap reached its most negative result in history, -14.7%, and that the growth of the Brazilian economy is historically based mainly on the labor factor. The neutral interest rate in the third quarter of 2020 reached -2.9%.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2021

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/31474

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Produto potencialHiato do produtoTaxa de juro neutraRegra de TaylorRecessãoPotential outputOutput gapNeutral interest rateRecessionTaylor ruleEconomiaTaylor, Regra deBrasil - Política econômicaPolítica monetária - Modelos matemáticosInflação - Brasil