Persistência e volatilidade do gap da inflação

Resumo

In this article, we estimate a trend for Brazilian inflation in order to present an alternative measure of long-term inflation and provide a complement to the traditionals core inflation measures. In addition to the economic analysis of the behavior of this estimation, a pseudo real-time predictive capability assessment is applied. Obtaining the trend also allowed us to verify the  dynamics of the persistence and volatility of the inflation gap during the current monetary regime. In the period under review, the results are correlated with the Brazilian situation, with positive contributions from the trend in the inflation prediction process. Still, they show a resistance convergence of the inflation rate to the levels pre-established by the CMN, in view of a considerable persistence of the inflation gap. The volatility of the gap, on the other hand, corroborates and identifies, at the same time, the great oscillations present in the domestic and external economic scenario.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2022

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/1980-53575245sng

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/190739

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Monetary PolicyTrend inflationInflation-gapPolítica monetáriaTendência inflacionáriaGap da inflação