Um Fundeb mais progressivoefeitos redistributivos da ponderação pelo nível socioeconômico e pela disponibilidade de recursos vinculados à educação

Resumo

This study examines the redistributive effects of introducing two new weighting factors in Brazil’s Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Basic Education and the Valorization of Education Professionals (Fundeb): the socioeconomic level of students (SES) and the availability of resources earmarked for education (ARes). These factors, established by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 and regulated by Law No. 14,113/2020, were analyzed through counterfactual simulations using data from the 2023 fiscal year. The simulations applied the redistribution rules scheduled to take effect in 2025 and 2026, comparing scenarios with and without the new weightings alongside the incremental increase in federal transfers. The results indicate that the joint application of SES and ARes enhances Fundeb’s progressivity, raising the per-student funding levels particularly in municipalities located in the lowest income strata (average increases of 8% to 15%, depending on the group and scenario), while wealthier school systems experience marginal gains or relative losses. In aggregate terms, fifteen states exhibit average increases above 2%, notably Maranhão, Pará, Ceará, and Piauí, whereas Rio de Janeiro stands as the only state with a net reduction, due to its higher socioeconomic profile and the consequent redistribution of roughly half of its federal complement to other states. Overall, the simulations suggest a significant reduction in fiscal disparities: the Gini index for educational revenues declines from 0.120 to 0.105, and the p90/ p10 ratio from 1.639 to 1.500 in the projected 2026 scenario. These findings indicate that the Fundeb reform strengthens territorial equity in the financing of Brazilian basic education by channeling more resources toward school systems in contexts of greater social vulnerability and lower fiscal capacity.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2026

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/td3201-port

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/20354

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Finanças PúblicasEducaçãoGestão Municipal

Palavras-chave

Educação. TreinamentoAvaliação de efeitos redistributivosFinanciamento educacionalProgressividadeVulnerabilidade socioeconômicaH Public Economics::H7 State and Local Government - Intergovernmental Relations::H75 State and Local Government: Health - Education - Welfare - Public PensionsH Public Economics::H7 State and Local Government - Intergovernmental Relations::H77 Intergovernmental Relations - Federalism - SecessionI Health, Education, and Welfare::I2 Education and Research Institutions::I22 Educational Finance - Financial AidI Health, Education, and Welfare::I2 Education and Research Institutions::I24 Education and InequalityAssessment of redistributive effectsEducational financingProgressivitySocioeconomic vulnerability