Simulações dos impactos da Reforma da Previdência sob a ótica da renda

Resumo

The proposal of the pension reform, text of PEC 287/16, has once again become a theme in the political and economic scenario as part of a series of measures to equalize public accounts. The study used the PNAD and projected the population that will be retired in a time horizon of 30 years considering the current rules and analyzed the demographic characteristics of those who would still be retired and who could not retire with the changes in the rules, considering the two proposed versions: the initial text of the PEC and the second version, the result of the political negotiation process. The results show that women and rural women lose the most in the first proposal, an effect that is reversed by the second, without major changes in the profile of the other variables. The decrease in the value of the initial retirement is different between regimes and between proposals: in RPPS the greater the income range of the person, the greater is the proportional loss at retirement and the second version produces larger losses. In RGPS, first version produces larger losses and the impacts are relatively larger in the ranges of 1 to 5 minimum wages. In both regimes, woman is the most affected and needs to contribute during a longer period to retire. Projections show that both proposals do not diminish the proportion of people with incomes of up to one minimum wage and do not change their benefits, that is, by actually affecting a less deprived part of the population.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2018

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/20413

Temas

EconomiaPolíticas PúblicasAdministração Pública

Palavras-chave

Pension reformRetirementReforma da previdênciaRGPSRPPSAposentadoriaEconomiaPrevidência social - BrasilReforma administrativa - BrasilReforma previdenciáriaAposentadoria - BrasilRenda - Brasil