Pecuária bovina no Brasil e disfuncionalidades do mercado financeiroum estudo sobre os impactos no valor de mercado dos frigoríficos brasileiros de capital aberto decorrente do aumento da demanda chinesa em virtude da peste suína africana

Resumo

During the years the Brazilian cattle ranching has been through a process of consolidation, specialization and professionalization of the producers and the industry. The innovation was implemented bringing an increase of productivity without the necessity of expanding the area, reducing the activity cycle, optimizing the costs and elevating the operational and logistic efficiency. Brazil has the large cattle herd in the world and the biggest exporter as well, according to the United States of America Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 2019. The elevation of the cattle arroba was positive during the years, however, in the year of 2019, this appreciation was significant, mainly because of an increase of the external demand for the cattle protein by the Asians that suffered with the African Swine Fever, reducing the swine herd. In the year, the Brazilian department of Agriculture (MAPA) has done a commendable work to enable more refrigerators to export and expand to new markets. Another contributing factor to the cattle arroba appreciation was the reduction of the cattle replacement, in the years of 2017 and 2018, there was a strong butchering of reproduction’s cows due to negative margins and rentability for the cattle producers, the bovine protein presents a high-income elasticity of demand, meaning that in the years of economic recession, population migrates to proteins considered cheaper such as swine and poultry. The refrigerators sector is characterized by three major players: JBS, Marfrig and Minerva, the main strategy persuaded by them is investments in a global scale and inorganic growing. Within that context, the goal of this essay, is to identify the real appreciation, due to an increase of the Chinese demand for Brazilian bovine protein caused by the African Swine Fever, in the market value of the Brazilian refrigerators with stocks commercialized in the market capital, JBS, Marfrig and Minerva. How much of this value is real and how much are due to overreaction? The market efficiency was present or the behavioral finance bias were involved in the decision-making moments and pricing of the stocks. The methodology developed was the valuation using the Discount Cash Flow to achieve the fair price of the refrigerator’s stocks during 2019. The results obtained were that the stocks from Marfrig (MRFG3) and Minerva (BEEF3) were underpriced, meaning that they were under their fair value, on the other hand, the JBS (JBSS3) stocks were overpriced, over their fundamental value. The results proved that behavioral bias and irrationally were present in the pricing of the stocks by the market agents.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2020

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/30009

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

ValuationBrazilian cattle RanchingAfrican Swine FeverBehavioral financePecuária bovina brasileiraPeste Suína AfricanaJBSMarfrigMinervaFinanças comportamentaisEconomiaPecuária - BrasilEconomia agrícolaPecuária - Aspectos econômicos