O nexo carbono-energia-metais industriaisanálise de causalidade entre carbono e mercados financeiros

Resumo

This paper explores the relationships between carbon pricing and indexes in the clean energy, natural gas, and industrial metals markets. It employed Granger causality tests and nonlinear techniques, such as Transfer Entropy and Pattern Causality, analyzing periods before and after the Russia-Ukraine war to determine whether and how exogenous shocks influence the structural dynamics of these interconnections. The findings reveal a bidirectional linear relationship between carbon and clean energy, as well as an influence of carbon on industrial metals. In the nonlinear framework, prior to the war, carbon impacted natural gas, while clean energy influenced carbon. The relationship between carbon and industrial metals remained significant both before and after the conflict, though the causality became dark. This study contributes to the literature by integrating linear and nonlinear models in the analysis of its relationship, while also considering evolving geopolitical contexts, providing insights for regulatory decisions, investment strategies, and public policy-making, especially in the context of global discussions such as COP30.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37623

Temas

Políticas PúblicasInfraestruturaAdministração PúblicaDados

Palavras-chave

CarbonoEnergiaMetais industriaisMetodologia linear e não linearGuerra Rússia-UcrâniaGrangerTransfer EntropyPatter CausalityCarbonClean EnergyLinear and nonlinear modelsRussian-Ukraine warAdministração públicaMercado de emissão de carbonoMetais - ComércioModelos lineares (Estatística)Ucrânia, Guerra, 2022