O hiato da arrecadação do ICMSuma comparação entre o DF e o resto do Brasil

Resumo

This study aims to estimate the ICMS tax gap in the Federal District and to assess its structural and institutional determinants, based on the Value Added Tax Revenue Ratio (VRR) methodology developed by the OECD. The research replicates and adapts the model proposed by Teles (2023) to the subnational context, covering the period from 1999 to 2021, and seeks to identify the causes of the persistently low revenue efficiency of the ICMS in the Federal District in comparison with the national benchmark and with structurally similar jurisdictions. Methodologically, the study combines a top-down approach—defined as the ratio between actual and potential revenue—with an adjustment of the economic base through the exclusion of the Gross Value Added of Public Administration, the application of a logistic (logit) transformation to mitigate extreme values, and comparative and sectoral analyses, using data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Secretariat of Economy of the Federal District, and the National Council for Fiscal Policy (CONFAZ). The results indicate that the ICMS VRR of the Federal District remained consistently below the national aggregate throughout the period analyzed, stabilizing around 0.40 in the most recent years, which reveals a persistent tax gap. Even when compared with structurally similar states, such as Amapá and Roraima, the Federal District exhibited a high and increasing relative gap. The estimation of the endogenous gap shows that, on average, the Federal District collected approximately half of its estimated potential under comparable efficiency conditions, indicating that undercollection is predominantly structural. The findings further suggest that structural factors—such as the high share of the public sector in gross value added, low productive diversification, and the condition of a predominantly consumer jurisdiction—explain a substantial portion of the gap, while institutional factors, including broad tax incentives, regulatory changes, and recurrent installment and amnesty programs, contribute to the expansion of the policy gap and to lower revenue efficiency. The study concludes that the ICMS tax gap in the Federal District is structural and institutional in nature, being more closely related to economic composition and interjurisdictional revenue-sharing rules than to isolated compliance failures, and that the VRR-based methodology is suitable for subnational tax gap measurement and for supporting policies aimed at improving revenue efficiency.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/38345

Temas

Gestão PúblicaFinanças PúblicasAdministração Pública

Palavras-chave

ICMSGap tributárioEficiência arrecadatóriaVAT Revenue Ratio (VRR)Distrito FederalPolítica fiscal subnacionalTax gapRevenue efficiencyFederal DistrictSubnational fiscal policyAdministração públicaImposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviçosImpostos - Arrecadação - Distrito Federal (Brasil)Política tributária