Indústria, território e desenvolvimentotrilhando o futuro do Brasil

Resumo

Economic development does not occur in an abstract space, but in concrete territories shaped by historical trajectories and unique productive capacities. In recent decades, the revaluation of the State's role as an inducer of development has placed the territorial dimension back at the center of the debate, especially given the limitations of strategies based exclusively on market liberalization. In this context, policies aimed at articulating local actors to promote productive dynamism, reduce regional inequalities, and strengthen subnational economies have gained relevance. This work takes as its object the Arranjos Produtivos Locais (APLs), territorial agglomerations of firms and other economic, political, and social actors, organized around specific productive activities, whose systematic interactions foster localized processes of learning, cooperation, and innovation. To this end, we adopt an econometric strategy structured at two levels of analysis. The first investigates the municipal effect of the presence of an APL: the aggregate impact on the overall economy of treated municipalities, compared to municipalities without recognized arrangements. The second examines the sectoral effect, seeking to identify how the arrangements affect the other productive sectors of the local economy — that is, the spillover effect of the policy on activities not directly linked to the APL. The analytical base was constructed from APLs officially recognized by the State, cross-referenced with data from the Annual Report of Social Information (RAIS). Both analyses include robustness tests with prior pairing through Genetic Matching, a technique that ensures greater comparability between treatment and control groups, reducing imbalances in observable covariates and strengthening the validity of causal identification. The results show that local productive arrangements have a positive impact on territorial development. At the level of the municipal effect, the findings reveal a pattern of territorial diffusion of economic activity: the hubs do not show significant effects, while complementary and neighboring municipalities record growth in the number of establishments. This pattern suggests that the expansion of the productive chain and its auxiliary links is not anchored in the formal anchors of the arrangement, but rather radiates outward to the surrounding area. At the level of the sectoral effect, the findings point to positive spillovers on sectors not directly linked to the APL, with increases in employment, wage bill, and the number of firms, with no evidence of relevant substitution between local activities. Effects of productive intensification are also identified in remuneration and the wage bill, although heterogeneous and sensitive to robustness tests. Taken together, the findings support the interpretation that APLs, as a public policy, operate as a mechanism of territorial governance capable of strengthening regional linkages and extending the reach of development beyond the hub-municipality, reinforcing the role of the State as an inducer of productive strategies anchored in the territory.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2026

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/38662

Temas

EconomiaPolíticas PúblicasDesenvolvimento RegionalDesenvolvimento EconômicoAdministração PúblicaGovernança

Palavras-chave

Arranjo Produtivo Local (APL)Avaliação de impactoDesenvolvimento territorialDiferenças-em-DiferençasNova geografia econômicaGenetic MatchingImpact evaluationTerritorial developmentDifference-in-DifferencesNew economic geographyAdministração públicaArranjos produtivos locaisDesenvolvimento econômico - BrasilPlanejamento regionalBrasil - Condições econômicas