Incentivos financeiros, capacidades estatais e distribuição territorial da alfabetizaçãoevidências do programa alfabetiza juntos São Paulo

Resumo

This study analyzes the relationship between the Educational Excellence Award and the educational performance of municipalities in the state of São Paulo within the scope of the Alfabetiza Juntos São Paulo Program, investigating whether this association is conditioned by the municipal implementation profile within the collaborative federalism framework. An explanatory sequential mixed-method design is adopted, combining multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, k-means clustering, spatial autocorrelation using Moran’s I, and explanatory cartography analysis, complemented by qualitative interpretation based on institutional documents and the researcher’s experience in program implementation between 2023 and 2025. Results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between the award and the municipal average proficiency in the Portuguese language in the 2024 SARESP assessment, even after controlling for prior performance and socioeconomic context. This association is, however, modest in magnitude, specific to the Portuguese Language, and restricted to score variation within proficiency bands, without translating into transitions between categorical levels. Cluster analysis identified two predominant municipal profiles, high and low implementation, with very similar average socioeconomic development indicators, suggesting that local institutional factors, such as leadership profile and technical capacity of municipal education secretariats, are the main mediators of responsiveness to the incentive. Moran’s I returned non-significant results for municipal proficiency, confirming that performance variation is local and diffuse in nature, not conditioned by geographic location. The interaction regression model indicates that the estimated effect of the award is greater in low-implementation municipalities, a result consistent with the selection bias hypothesis, whereby awarded municipalities in this group tend to present accumulated historical institutional capacity rather than a response to the recent incentive. The study contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of financial incentives in a decentralized federal context and offers relevant evidence for improving the design of the collaborative governance framework in São Paulo, particularly regarding the need for instruments more sensitive to the institutional heterogeneity of municipalities.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2026

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/40423

Temas

Desenvolvimento RegionalAdministração PúblicaDadosGovernançaEducação

Palavras-chave

Regime de colaboraçãoIncentivos financeirosAlfabetizaçãoPolítica educacionalFederalismoCollaborative federalismFinancial incentivesLiteracy educational policyFederalismAdministração públicaEducação e EstadoAvaliação educacionalInvestimentos na educação