Improving mutual fund market timing measuresa markov switching approach

Resumo

Market timing performance of mutual funds is usually evaluated with linear models with dummy variables which allow for the beta coefficient of CAPM to vary across two regimes: bullish and bearish market excess returns. Managers, however, use their predictions of the state of nature to deÞne whether to carry low or high beta portfolios instead of the observed ones. Our approach here is to take this into account and model market timing as a switching regime in a way similar to Hamilton s Markov-switching GNP model. We then build a measure of market timing success and apply it to simulated and real world data.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2001

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/55

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Market timingMutual fundsMarkov-switchingRegime changesEconomiaModelo de precificação de ativosInvestimentos - Modelos matemáticos