Ensaios acerca das finanças públicas estaduaisrenegociações, indicadores antecedentes e sustentabilidade fiscal

Resumo

This work brings together a set of studies related to Brazilian state public finances, starting by tracing the fiscal history of these entities, where two centuries of crises and financial aid are put into perspective alongside the evolution of the financial aspects of the management of regional governments. The first empirical analysis involved evaluating the financial results of the debt renegotiation promoted by Law 9,496 in 1997, which was the most important in terms of scope and value. Results from previous studies on the subject were revisited and focus was given on the individual impacts stemming from changes in the contractual interest rates and terms, promoted in 2014 and 2016, respectively. The importance of modifying the interest rates became evident, reversing a financial result which would have been positive for the federal government under the original conditions to one that assured debtors a credit subsidy, which benefited states in a heterogeneous way. The second study was dedicated to identifying early warning indicators that could anticipate episodes of financial difficulties, using a limited dependent variable model which allowed estimating the contributions of explanatory variables to the probability of undergoing such episodes. Evidence showed the importance of negative shocks to revenue, as well as high levels of personnel expenses and primary deficits as warning signs. The estimated probabilities of experiencing financial difficulties, or, more specifically, the need to resort to new debt refinancing schemes under favorable conditions, were then applied to the expected payments in the renegotiation promoted by Law 9,496/97, allowing the recalculation of the net present value of these contracts incorporating the risk of not receiving what was due. Finally, an assessment of the sustainability of state governments' fiscal policy was carried out covering the period from 2007 to 2022 and leading to the conclusion that it was collectively sustainable, despite some states having needed financial aid in different degrees. It was observed that in the first half of the sample this sustainability was ensured by states’ capacity to generate surpluses, in the face of high interest charges, followed by a fatigue in this capacity, which was compensated by the review of charges.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Tese

Ano

2024

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/35080

Temas

EconomiaFinanças PúblicasDesenvolvimento RegionalDadosMeio Ambiente

Palavras-chave

Federalismo fiscalIndicadores antecedentesSustentabilidade fiscalFiscal federalismEarly warning systemsFiscal sustainabilityEconomiaFinanças públicasFederalismoRelações tributarias intergovernamentais