Effect of a basic income on the Brazilian economy measured by the input-output matrix

Resumo

The study assesses the distributive and macroeconomic impacts of a Universal Basic Income of R$ 422,00 per month per person in Brazil, using a microsimulation and input output approach based on the Leontief Miyazawa model. It relies on data from the 2019 Continuous National Household Sample Survey, the 2017/2018 Household Budget Survey, and Brazil’s 2019 input-output matrix. Funded through a flat income tax, the UBI redistributes income from the richest to the poorest, increasing the share of total income held by the bottom 50% and redirecting consumption toward sectors such as food, retail, and domestic services. Compared to the baseline scenario, it results in structural gains of 8% in income, 10% in output, and 11% in employment, with strong effects in labor-intensive sectors. Despite a fiscal cost of 11% of GDP and continued income concentration among the wealthiest, the UBI reduces inequality and stimulates economic activity, offering evidence to support its feasibility in Brazil.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2025

Instituição

Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos

Fonte

Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.54766/rberu.v19i3.1175

Identificador

oai:ojs.emnuvens.com.br:article/1175

Licença

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Temas

Finanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

Universal basic incomeInput-outputBrazilRenda Básica UniversalInsumo-produtoBrasil