Dívida mobiliária federal e impactos fiscais1995/99

Resumo

This paper aims at an analysis of federal public debt’s (FPD) effects upon management on public sector liquid debt (PSLD) and on public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR), during the period 1995/99 in Brazil. In order to do that, the theoretical basis of FPD management is determined through the analysis of the relationship between bond maturities and return rates. The paper studies the Brazilian FPD management performance in 1995/98 concerning bond maturities and debt burden, as well as the connections between these and the basic interest rate (over-selic). Through a simple model, one tries to estimate the effects of changes in over-selic rate and FPD structure on PSLD and PSBR, in 1999. The main conclusion is that FPD management can have favorable tax effects, specially through lengthening maturities and reducing interest rates, provided that expected inflation and exchange rate remain constant. Under these conditions, it would be possible to diminish PSBR by increasing the share of exchange rate indexed bonds and by reducing the share of over-selic indexed debt. Finally, the paper concludes that the “degree of freedom” of monetary authority in order to raise the basic interest rate without unbalancing fiscal figures depends on FPD structure, as well as on the share of assets and liabilities indexed to over-selic.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2000

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/2522

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil; 1995-1999

Temas

Gestão PúblicaFinanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

Dívida mobiliária federal (DMF)Taxa over-selicDívida Líquida do Setor Público (DLSP)