Avaliação da dependência espacial do fenômeno de shrinking cities (encolhimento das cidades) no Brasil

Resumo

The release of the preliminary results of the 2022 Census in Brazil, in mid-2023, showed a noteworthy development in a previously identified trend across numerous Brazilian municipalities: a decline in their populations. This phenomenon, known as “Shrinking Cities,” has been observed globally across continents and stems from diverse reasons within each region and historical period. The shrinkage of cities began to present a challenge for urban planning theorists and public administrators at the conclusion of major international conflicts in the last century (XX), coinciding with a growing disillusionment with models of social and territorial organization, symbolized by the end of the Iron Curtain and the emergence of a unified Europe. Such phenomenon has since been further accelerated by the effects of globalization on national economies, including increased cultural and information exchange between people and nations, expanded mobility and connectivity across territories, and notably, a reduction in human reproduction rates. In Brazil, the phenomenon of population "downsizing" in certain regions has sparked growing curiosity. It impacts a substantial 43% of the total number of municipal administrative units, suggesting the need for policies to address depopulation, especially in the Northeast and South regions, as well as in smaller municipalities across the country. Conversely, attention should also be directed towards municipal administrative units experiencing population growth above regional averages (comprising 32% of municipalities), at times at accelerated rates. This proactive approach aims to better accommodate potential migratory flows and prevent the recurrence of mistakes made by densely populated regions in the past. It is important to note that the present dissertation is an exploratory research on the topic and will not focus on detecting potential migratory flows, but rather, it aims to provide insight into the influences of urban, economic, and social indicators, along with Brazilian territorial and regional characteristics, on the Shrinking Cities demographic phenomenon, utilizing statistical and spatial analysis resources. The methodology involves exploring the spatial dependency of the phenomenon and its correlation with variables representing urban, economic, social, and territorial characteristics of municipalities. The study adopts the Annual Geometric Rate of Population Growth as the primary benchmark variable and evaluates the influence of regression variables such as municipal HDI, municipal GDP, and urban conditions. Additionally, it accounts for the impact of the COVID19 pandemic on the data. The Moran's I of the primary variable was 32.90%, indicating a moderate to strong spatial autocorrelation, while the regression model's R2 went from 34.37% (OLS) to 41.32% (SAR - Spatial Auto-Regressive model). The explanatory variables also exhibited a moderate to very strong spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I went from 34.9% to 81.1%). As a supplementary component, the study incorporates international references to elucidate and address the issue of Shrinking Cities. It proposes a geography-based methodology, supported by Geoanalytics resources, to analyze the problem and identify data patterns indicative of population shrinkage occurrence and intensification, as well as to detect clusters of municipalities at a heightened risk of encountering city management challenges as a direct consequence of this phenomenon.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2024

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/35228

Temas

Planejamento UrbanoDesenvolvimento RegionalAdministração PúblicaDados

Palavras-chave

DemografiaEstatística EspacialEncolhimento de cidadesDespopulaçãoCenso 2022Shrinking CitiesGeoanalyticsDemographySpatial statisticsCity downsizingDepopulationAdministração públicaAnálise espacial (Estatística)Cidades em declínioBrasil - Censo demográfico