Análise da tendência e correlação dos preços do biodiesel, óleo de soja, sebo e CBIO no Brasil entre 2022 a 2024

Resumo

Objective: To evaluate and compare the price trends of biodiesel, soybean oil (including exchange rate variation, as this raw material is quoted in US dollars), tallow, and CBIO in Brazil between January 2022 and December 2024, examining the correlation between these variables. Methodology: The research is classified as an exploratory-descriptive and applied study, with a qualitative-quantitative nature. Results: The statistical analysis (Pearson correlation coefficient) showed a significant positive correlation between biodiesel prices and the raw materials analyzed in this study (soybean oil and tallow). On the other hand, the correlation with CBIO prices was negative and weak, indicating that such decarbonization credits did not positively influence the price of this biofuel. Exchange rate variation impacted the correlation between biodiesel and soybean oil, reducing the correlation coefficient when expressed in US dollars. The hypothesis was partially confirmed. Limitations: The analysis is limited to the Brazilian market, covering the period from January 2022 to December 2024. It uses biodiesel prices published by ANP, which reflect a mix of various feedstocks beyond soybean oil and tallow (the inputs considered in this study). Additionally, although CBIO prices are influenced by other biofuels such as ethanol and biomethane, these were not included in the scope of this research, which focused specifically on biodiesel. Practical Contributions: The research results can be used by companies involved in the biodiesel supply chain to improve management and monitoring of price trends. Furthermore, the findings can assist in the development and enhancement of Brazilian public policies to promote biodiesel and its raw materials. Contributions to Society: The research fosters discussion on the correlation of biodiesel, soybean oil, tallow, and CBIO prices and how these variables impact each other. Originality: This study is unprecedented in Brazil and possibly worldwide, as it analyzes and compares the prices of biodiesel, soybean oil, tallow, and CBIO together, aiming to evaluate and compare price trends and their correlations.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37214

Temas

Políticas PúblicasAdministração Pública

Palavras-chave

BiodieselÓleo de sojaSeboCBIOCorrelação de preçosSoybean oilPrice correlationTallowAdministração públicaPolítica energéticaBiocombustíveisPreçosCréditos de carbono