A vantagem do incumbente nas eleições municipais e estaduais brasileirasum estudo de 2000 a 2018

Resumo

The aim of this article is to investigate the occurrence of the incumbency advantage phenomenon in Brazilian local and state elections. The methodology adopted is that of repeated pairs of Brambor and Ceneviva (2011), in which pairs of candidates who face each other more than once are the unit of  analysis.  The  greatest  advantage  of  using  it  lies  in  the  removal  of  candidate  and  municipality fixed  effects.  Contrasting  evidence  is  found  in  terms  of  the  incumbent’s  advantage  for  elections of  mayors  and  governors.  The  results  suggest  that  incumbent  mayors  suffer  a  disadvantage  of 2.7 percentage points in the Brazilian municipal elections. There is evidence of a downturn in the incumbent’s disadvantage between the 2000 and 2008 elections. However, there has been a growth in the phenomenon for the years 2012 and 2016. On the other hand, incumbent governors enjoy a significant advantage of 9.5 points percentages. The advantage of incumbent governors seems to be steadily increasing from 1998 to 2010, when it reaches a maximum of 17.3 percentage points.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2020

Instituição

Escola Nacional de Administração Pública - Enap

Fonte

Revista do Serviço Público

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.21874/rsp.v71i1.3992

Identificador

oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/3992

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0

Palavras-chave

EleiçõesBrasilVantagem do Incumbenteincumbency advantageelectionsBrazil