Transação tributária como indutora de regularidade e fonte sustentável de receitasuma comparação com os parcelamentos especiais

Resumo

Purpose: To assess whether the federal tax settlement program (transação tributária federal) has achieved sustainable tax credit recovery, characterized by growth, stability, and predictability, and induced voluntary compliance with future tax obligations, two objectives expressly set forth in PGFN Ordinance No. 6.757/2022. Methodology: The study adopts a quantitative, observational, and longitudinal approach, structured around two dimensions. In the compliance dimension, KaplanMeier survival curves are estimated to test whether individual tax settlements are associated with better compliance trajectories than PERT, and a staggered-adoption difference-in-differences model by cohorts (Callaway-Sant'Anna) is used to test whether enrollment in an individual tax settlement is associated with a higher probability of maintaining compliance compared with a non-enrollee control group. In the recovery dimension, monthly time series are analyzed using descriptive metrics, a log-linear trend model with a structural break, and volatility and predictability indicators, testing for persistent real growth, flow stability, and predictability. Findings: The findings indicate that individual tax settlements are associated with a higher probability of achieving and sustaining tax compliance than PERT (85.5% versus 59.0% at 12 months; 70.3% versus 47.1% persistence at 24 months), as well as positive associations relative to the control group, on the order of +61.2 percentage points in the month of enrollment and +59.8 percentage points at 12 months, with these results remaining robust across alternative specifications. Regarding debt recovery, the post-settlement period shows faster real growth (18.06% per year, versus 1.93% before 2020), lower volatility (0.444 to 0.213), and improved predictability (MAPE: 36.12% to 18.14%). Recovery attributable to the settlement program alone also displays a more regular pattern than that observed during the period in which special installment programs were offered. Limitations: The comparison between tax settlement program and PERT involves non-contemporaneous instruments with distinct eligibility conditions, and potential selfselection bias in access to individual tax settlement cannot be ruled out. The control group does not provide a fully adequate counterfactual; accordingly, findings pertaining to tax compliance should not be interpreted as causal inference. To reduce this limitation, an HonestDiD sensitivity analysis was employed, relaxing the parallel trends assumption, and it preserved the conclusion of a positive association in the postenrollment period. In the recovery dimension, it is not possible to isolate the settlement program from other collection strategies employed by the agency, nor to attribute causal effects; results should therefore be read as descriptive evidence. Pratictal Implications: The study indicates that the federal tax settlement program, as a public policy, should be evaluated and monitored not only in terms of revenue collection, but also in terms of other outcomes associated with its stated objectives. Social Implications: The study provides evidence that tax settlement operates differently from the special installment programs that preceded it, both in the pattern of tax debt recovery and in taxpayer behavior. The findings contribute to the debate on public policy evaluation by contributing to the measurement of program outcomes and the monitoring of its implementation. Originality: No empirical studies comparing special installment programs and tax settlement were identified. Category: Quantitative empirical research.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2026

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/40380

Temas

Políticas PúblicasFinanças PúblicasAdministração PúblicaDados

Palavras-chave

Transação tributáriaParcelamentos especiaisDívida ativa da UniãoConformidade fiscalRegularidade tributáriaRecuperação de créditosTax settlementSpecial installment programsFederal tax debtTax complianceTax debt recoveryAdministração públicaAdministração tributáriaDívida ativaPolítica tributáriaProgramas de compliance Nacional