Top 5 Ranking and heterogeneity in monthly inflation expectationsin the Focus Surveyan agent-based computational analysis

Resumo

We propose an agent-based model (ABM) to represent the strategic environment of reputation gain induced by the short-term Top 5 Ranking (RT-5) regarding inflation measured by the IPCA of the Focus Survey, which is carried out by the Central Bank of Brazil. In this computational model, we treat the formation of inflation expectations as a discrete choice process of forecasting strategies, in which agents have the incentive to choose over time the best forecasting strategy due to the reputation gain arising from the RT-5. Based on the proposed ABM, we found that the market expectations system becomes more effective with respect to the forecast of inflation in the presence of the short-term RT-5 of the Focus Survey, when compared to the case in which the incentive of reputation gain generated by the RT 5 is not considered. The results of the computer simulations also showed that, in general, the proposed ABM can generate aggregate properties of the respondents’ inflation expectations that have been detected by the empirical literature, among them the persistent heterogeneity of these expectations over time.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2026

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/1980-53575623jjh

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/212753

Licença

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Modelo computacional baseado em agentes.Expectativas heterogêneas.Pesquisa Focus.Inflação.Agent-based computational modelHeterogeneous expectationsFocus ResearchInflation