The Effects of the China shock on the brazilian agriculture

Resumo

This study examines the effects of a commodities’ trade shock on the agricultural sector. I estimate the impacts of the increased Chinese demand for commodities on land use, technology adoption and agricultural productivity in Brazil. Using municipality-level data from the Brazilian Agricultural Census, I identify the effects of the increased export demand from China on local agricultural outcomes with a shift-share instrument. I find that municipalities more exposed to the Chinese demand growth experienced a persistently higher conversion of pasture to cropland and a larger concentration of land ownership than municipalities less exposed. I find no significant effect on the expansion of farmland area. Additionally, these municipalities faced a lower increase in the use of agricultural inputs and a long-term rise on cattle ranching productivity, relative to regions less specialized in the production of commodities demanded by China.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2020

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/31423

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Agricultural sectorTrade shockBrazilEconomiaPreços agrícolas - Modelos econométricos - BrasilMercado futuro de mercadoriasEconomia agrícola