The Brazilian Real Exchange Rate during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Resumo

The Covid-19 pandemic period was unprecedented. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the Brazilian real exchange rate during that period. To this end, we estimate an equilibrium path of the real exchange rate using an Error Correction Model. First, we verify whether movements on the exchange rate can be explained by fundamentals or they constitute a misalignment. According to our results, the real exchange rate was in line with its determinants during the pandemic, despite its strong depreciation. Second, we find the Balassa-Samuelson effect was the main driver of the exchange rate depreciation. However, the impact of the terms of trade was in the opposite direction of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which pre[1]vented a greater exchange rate depreciation.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2025

Instituição

EGV EPGE

Fonte

Revista Brasileira de Economia

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Não informado

Identificador

oai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/92610

Abrangência

Não há; Não há

Palavras-chave

Balassa-Samuelson effectequilibrium exchange rateCOVID-19Sem informaçãoEfeito Balassa-SamuelsonTaxa de câmbio de equilíbrio