Quais os efeitos distributivos e fiscais da substituição das desonerações do ICMS por um sistema de cashback voltado à população de baixa renda do Distrito Federal?

Resumo

This paper aims to evaluate the distributive effects of replacing tax exemptions with a targeted cashback system envisioned in the Brazilian tax reform, focusing on the low-income population of the Federal District and the food, electricity, and telecommunications sectors. The hypothesis is that the current system is regressive and that waivers on essential items produce significant tax leakages in favor of higher-income groups. Methodologically, it combines a literature review, a study of consumer credit in Canada, and a normative analysis (EC No. 132/2023, LC No. 214/2025, and district legislation), with counterfactual simulations of fiscal cost scenarios and possible impacts. The results show that the national standardization of the basic food basket at a zero rate tends to increase welfare, but also tax expenditures, with a diffuse distributive effect. In electricity, the transition from exemption/reduction to targeted refunds improves progressivity on average, with the magnitude sensitive to calibration (phaseout design, eligible consumption limit); in telecommunications, the introduction of the new instrument increases progressivity by creating protection where there was previously no significant sectoral benefit. It is concluded that well-calibrated cashback is superior to broad exemptions for mitigating inequality without compromising the tax base, provided it is accompanied by an impact assessment and governance. Impact-oriented governance is recommended, with a public dashboard and targets for concentrating the benefit in the targeted deciles.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/38197

Temas

EconomiaPolíticas PúblicasFinanças PúblicasGovernança

Palavras-chave

Reforma tributáriaIBSCBSCashback tributárioRenúncia de receitaProgressividade tributáriaTax reformTax cashbackRevenue Waiver (ICMS)Tax progressivityEconomiaPolíticas públicasImposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviçosDistrito Federal (Brasil)