Previdência e reposição no serviço público civil federal do poder executivomicrossimulações

Resumo

This paper analyzes the personnel expenditures in the Brazilian federal civil public service using administrative records from the Executive Branch. There are two contributions which are noteworthy because they may improve the understanding of policy makers regarding the evolution of those expenses in the upcoming years. First, we undertake simulations in order to assess the effects of the Proposal for Constitutional Amendment n. 287. It should be noted that this exercise disregards that the federal government will have to replace, to some extent, those people who are leaving the public service. Hence, in what follows, we formulate replacement scenarios to try and gauge the cost of different hiring strategies. Furthermore, we report the robustness of some results with respect to specific assumptions. In a nutshell, the results indicated that the reform will bring about economies for the public coffers over the next years, mainly due to the fall in the value of the survivors’ pensions. Nonetheless, given the enormous amount of people that will become eligible for retirement, the replacement policy to be followed by the government has a substantial weight on the size the payroll will reach.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2018

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/8279

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Gestão PúblicaPolíticas Públicas

Palavras-chave

Previdência SocialAposentadoriaGastos com pessoalServiço público federalMicrossimulaçõesReforma da previdênciaReposição