Precificação de sinergias em operações de fusões e aquisiçõesanálise empírica da Allos S.A.

Resumo

This paper investigates the potential pricing of synergy gains in the case of Allos S.A., the company resulting from the Aliansce Sonae Shopping Centers S.A. and BR Malls Participações S.A. merger closed in January 2023. The study adopts a quantitative approach based on multiple linear regression, estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares method. The dependent variable is the return of Allos’s market value and, in the pre-merger period, the return of the sum of the market values of Aliansce Sonae and brMalls. The series was constructed on a monthly basis, covering the period from October 2019 until January 2026. As controls, the model includes variables such as the lagged return of the dependent variable, to capture temporal persistence; the return on the market value of Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliários S.A., used as a sector proxy; and the real CDI rate, used as a macroeconomic proxy. The variable of interest, referred to as the post-announcement dummy, takes a value of zero for the months preceding the merger announcement and a value of one from the month in which the transaction was announced onward. The results indicate a strong association between the explanatory variables and the return of Allos S.A. The lagged variable presented a positive coefficient, suggesting persistence of returns. The return on the market value of Multiplan presented a coefficient close to one, consistent with its use as a sector proxy. A positive coefficient was also observed for the real CDI rate, which may be interpreted in light of hypotheses related to the wealth effect and the recomposition of macroeconomic expectations already incorporated into the asset’s prices. On the other hand, the dummy variable presented a negative coefficient, indicating lower average returns after the merger announcement. This result suggests that, at least in the short term, the market may have reacted cautiously to the transaction, possibly due to uncertainties regarding the effective capture of the expected synergies, including those associated with the elimination of operational redundancies.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Tese

Ano

2026

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/39964

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Fusões e aquisiçõesSinergiaRegressão linear múltiplaAllosShopping centersMergers and acquisitionsSynergyMultiple linear regressionEconomiaEmpresas - Fusão e incorporaçãoFinançasMercado de capitaisPreços