Pagamento vinculado à renda no novo Fiessimulações de reembolso e efeitos de alternativas de parametrização da cobrança*

Resumo

This paper examines the implementation of income-contingent repayment in Fies, Brazil’s federal student loan program for higher education. It first reconstructs the institutional design of the program after its 2017 reform, with particular attention to its repayment rules, guarantee arrangements, and governance structure. It then combines administrative data on Fies borrowers already in the repayment phase with annual records of formal-sector earnings to simulate repayment trajectories under alternative contribution rates, income exemption thresholds, and debt indexation regimes. The simulations show that repayment designs based on total income or on a moderate exemption threshold tend to strike a better balance between borrower protection, credit recovery, and repayment duration than designs with a high exemption threshold, such as one aligned with the projected personal income tax exemption in Brazil. The results also indicate that fully implementing income-contingent collection, with automatic withholding whenever possible and ex post adjustment for income not captured through payroll records, could improve both the effectiveness and the long-run sustainability of the program. More broadly, the findings suggest that the success of income-contingent repayment depends less on the formal adoption of the principle itself than on the concrete calibration of parameters such as contribution rates, exemption thresholds, debt indexation, and collection mechanisms.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Outro

Ano

2026

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/20313

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

GovernançaEducação

Palavras-chave

Educação. TreinamentoFiesFinanciamento estudantilPagamento vinculado à rendaCrédito educativoI Health, Education, and Welfare::I2 Education and Research Institutions::I22 Educational Finance - Financial AidH Public Economics::H8 Miscellaneous Issues::H81 Governmental Loans - Loan Guarantees - Credits - Grants - BailoutsG Financial Economics::G2 Financial Institutions and Services::G21 Banks - Depository Institutions - Micro Finance Institutions - MortgagesC Mathematical and Quantitative Methods::C1 Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General::C15 Statistical Simulation Methods: GeneralStudent financeIncome-contingent repaymentStudent loans