Os efeitos do novo regionalismo sobre o comércio

Resumo

From 1990 there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements notified to theWorld Trade Organization and this study aims to identify whether this new regionalismled to trade creation or trade diversion to their participants, using a gravity modelbased on panel data over the period 1990-2009. The results suggest the existence oftrade creation and export diversion due to the formation of Mercosur. With regards toNAFTA, besides being the only bloc that showed an anticipatory effect on their tradeflows within the region, there are signs that the growth of trade occurred due to tradecreation. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Asean and PAFTA caused tradediversion. Finally, the way that trade flows evolved within each bloc (ex ante and expost) was quite different, not only in terms of trade volume but also on how quicklythey responded to their formation, with its effects arising immediately in some casesand in others taking a few years.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2014

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/S0101-41612014000200005

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/46355

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Temas

Desenvolvimento RegionalDados

Palavras-chave

Integração RegionalModelo GravitacionalDados em painelRegional integrationGravity modelPanel data