Orçamento públicometodologia alternativa para previsão de receitas municipais

Resumo

Purpose – The main objective of this research is to compare the performance of the revenue forecast adopted by the 12 municipalities with more than 150 thousand inhabitants in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in the period 2008-2018, comparing the model presented in the Technical Budget Manual, of the Secretariat Federal Budget, with the Integrated Autoregressive Model of Moving Averages (ARIMA). Methodology - This research is characterized as descriptive, documental and comparative, with a quantitative approach to data, based on autoregressive econometric calculations for time series analysis. The software used to analyze the results was R. Findings - From the results obtained by applying the proposed ARIMA methodology, it was possible to verify that the forecast model proposed by the Federal Budget Secretariat, used by such municipalities, is more susceptible to errors over time. It is concluded that the performance of the ARIMA model in forecasting revenues was superior to the SOF forecasting model in 83% of the cases analyzed. Research Limitations – The sample of the analyzed space does not provide sufficient support for the conclusions regarding the effective replacement of the model adopted by the municipalities with the one proposed in this study. However, further research is needed to verify the effectiveness of alternative revenue forecasting models in order to improve the municipal planning process. Practical implications – From this research it will be possible to compare the SOF model with the ARIMA model. It is argued that this project has the potential to collaborate with the existing literature in the area of public budgeting by verifying the thesis related to the imprecision of the model offered by SOF for forecasting municipal revenue. Thus, the research is justified by the possibility of contributing to the area of public budget policies. Social implications – Due to the prominence achieved in recent decades by municipalities in the management of a wide range of public policies, the debate about the way in which they finance their actions has become of great social and academic interest. This debate, to which this research aims to contribute, points out that Brazilian municipalities have precarious technical-administrative capacities and this reflects in their low capacity to prepare documents for forecasting administrative revenues and expenses. Originality – This work does not make a theoretical or methodical innovation, but systematizes and records in a practical way an applied comparative study; the originality resides in the locus of the research, which restricts its focus to 12 municipalities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in the period established between 2008-2018.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2021

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/31056

Temas

Gestão PúblicaPolíticas PúblicasFinanças PúblicasAdministração PúblicaGestão Municipal

Palavras-chave

Contabilidade gerencial no setor públicoFinanças públicasModelo ARIMAPrevisão de receitas públicasOrçamento públicoManagement accounting in the public sectorPublic financesARIMA modelForecast of public revenuesPublic budgetAdministração públicaContabilidade públicaOrçamento municipalRenda pública - PrevisãoPrevisão com Metodologia de Box-Jenkins