Optimal foreign borrowing in a multisector dynamic equilibrium modela case study for Brazil

Resumo

This paper shows how a dynamic multisector equilibrium model can be formulated to be able to analyze the optimal borrowing policy of a developing country. It also describes how a non-linear programming model with the proposed features was constructed for Brazil, and discusses the optimal solution of a base case scenario for the economy in the next 20 years. The sensitivity analysis emphasizes the response of the model to different interest rates on foreign borrowing, alternative export expansion and imports requirements scenarios, and different hypothesis with respect to future petroleum prices and domestic petroleum production. The main conclusion is that the optimal long run borrowing policy for Brazil is quite sensitive to the expected future interest rates, and may be different from some myopic strategies which are currently being suggested to handle the developing countries foreign debt problems. The other important conclusion is that in the less favorable scenarios – protectionist foreign environment or higher petroleum prices – it is not optimal to postpone the required domestic adjustments by increased foreign borrowing. The usefulness of the model is not restricted to this set of simulations, since it can be readily adapted to address related issues such as foreign trade, investment and indirect taxation policies.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

1985

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/3218

Licença

Licença Padrão Ipea

Abrangência

Brasil

Palavras-chave

Modelo de equilibrio multisetorialPolítica de empréstimo ótimaModelo de programação não linear