On the edge of computational capacitya Delphi study on the future of Moore’s law

Resumo

This research investigates the future trajectory of computational capacity, addressing the critical transition period following the anticipated end of Moore’s law. Using a structured Delphi methodology, the study collects and synthesizes expert opinions from a group of specialists from both academia and industry, focusing on emerging computational paradigms. Conducted through three iterative rounds, this work explores strategic technology investment planning, alignment of strategies with business goals, and the implications of transitioning toward new computing paradigms. The study highlights significant consensus on factors crucial for successfully aligning technological investments with business objectives. It particularly emphasizes the importance of clear strategic vision, strong collaboration between IT departments and business units, and the fostering of organizational cultures that prioritize innovation, adaptability, and experimentation. Additionally, we shed light on the rising significance of energy efficiency as an essential aspect of computational development beyond the traditional focus on transistor miniaturization. This study offers insights that provide valuable guidance for organizations that navigate technological uncertainty. They offer strategies to capitalize on emerging computational opportunities while mitigating the risks associated with delayed or inadequate technological adoption. The results improve strategic information technology management tactics and highlight areas where further exploration and development are needed, providing directions for future research and practical implementations.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37199

Palavras-chave

Technological forecastingTechnology innovationQuantum computingDelphi methodPrevisão tecnológicaInovações tecnológicasComputação quânticaDelphi métodoAdministração de empresasDelphi, método