O PAC e o setor elétricodesafios para o abastecimento do mercado brasileiro (2007-2010)
Pêgo Filho, Bolívar; Campos Neto, Carlos Alvares da Silva
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Resumo
This paper has as generality objective to describe the Program of Acceleration of Growth (PAC) to make a recent analysis of the evolution of the Brazilian electric sector and the PAC as instrument of growth of electric sector. As specific objective it analyzes if the growth of offers of electric energy, inserted in the PAC, is enough to take care of the growth of the demand 2007-2010. For the analysis two scenes of growth had been created of offer and demand of electric energy, both having as base the installed capacity of 100 thousand MW: i) scene 1, with data of the Ministry of Mines and Energy MME; and ii) scene 2 with data of the PAC (2007-2010). The result of the analysis evidences that the supplying of the market of electric energy for the next years is not compatible with the growth of offers inserted in the PAC. The two scenes are very next and the incompatibility is more explicit when esteem that the elasticity income of the demand is of 1,3 to the year, what it implies a necessity of growth of offers of 6,5 thousand MW to the year, totalizing 26 thousand MW in the period, since that the GIP grows 5% to the year. Although the relevance of the investments foreseen in the PAC, they are not enough to eliminate a possible risk on insufficiency of offer of electric energy in Brazil, exactly considering that she will not have delay in the chronogram of its workmanships. Therefore, the guarantee of supplying of the market up to 2013 is running serious risk in view of the increasing increase of the generation deficit, particularly for the years of 2010 and 2011, where the proper government recognizes that they will be critical years. Data of the Energetic Research Interprise EPE present a risk of deficit of 4,5% in 2010 and 10% (the double of what the market of accepted energy as limit) in 2011.
Ficha do documento
- Tipo
- Estudo
- Ano
- 2008
- Instituição
- Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)
- Fonte
- Repositório do Ipea
- Idioma
- Português
- Acesso
- Acesso aberto
- Identificador
- oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/1475
- Licença
- Licença Comum
- Abrangência
- Brasil; 2007-2010
- Temas
- Infraestrutura
- Palavras-chave
- Setor elétricoEnergia elétricaMercadoOferta
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