O impacto da performance climática no risco empresarial da Equinoruma análise da causalidade dinâmica entre as emissões de gases de efeito estufa, o valor da empresa e o prêmio de risco

Resumo

This study empirically investigates dynamic causality between climate performance and the value risk of Equinor, an oil and gas company based in Norway, Europe, a comparatively mature market in climate issues, during the period from 2009 to 2021. Climate performance is measured by the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and production variable is contemplated as a measure of efficiency, while the generation of value risk is analyzed by two variables: the enterprise value, controlled by the operating result (EV/ EBITDA); and the risk premium, controlled by the price of Brent, the European benchmark for oil, isolating its possible influences on interest rates (Risk Premium/Brent). The general hypothesis of this study establishes that the emission of GHG reduction reduces Equinor's risk, with the expected increase in the enterprise’s value, besides the reduction of the risk premium. The analysis used was the Vectorial Autoregressive Model (VAR), complemented by the Impulse-Response Function (IRF), in addition to the variance decomposition. The results reveal the rejection of the general hypothesis: the reduction of GHG emissions does not reduce the risk in Equinor's generation of value, since the emission of GHG increases with the increase in production, the EV/EBITDA increases with the increase in emission of GHG and the Risk Premium/Brent decreases with an increase in emission of GHG. The variance decomposition reveals the majority self-dependence of production, which also has a significant impact on emission of GHH decomposition. EV/EBITDA and Risk Premium/Brent depend to a greater extent on their own occurrences, with some influence from the emission of GHG. In conclusion, the continuation of the study is recommended, as the most recent horizons of the analyzed series seem to move towards the confirmation of the general hypothesis systematically and intuitively.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2022

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/33318

Temas

EconomiaDesenvolvimento Econômico

Palavras-chave

EquinorPetróleo e gás (O&G)Risco climáticoEmissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE)Risco empresarialDesempenho econômico-financeiroPrêmio de riscoModelo Autoregressivo Vetorial (VAR)Climate riskGreenhouse Gas (GHG) emissionsBusiness riskEconomic-financial performanceRisk premiumVectorial Autoregressive Model (VAR)EconomiaAdministração de riscoEmpresas - FinançasIndústria petrolífera - Aspectos ambientaisMudanças climáticasRedução de gases do efeito estufa