O custo econômico da flexibilidade em um sistema com crescente participação de fontes intermitentes e não despacháveis na oferta de energia

Resumo

The growing participation of intermittent and non-dispatchable renewable sources, particularly wind power, solar photovoltaic generation, and Distributed Micro and Mini Generation (MMGD), has progressively shifted Brazil’s electricity matrix away from its traditional hydrothermal profile. Despite positive aspects such as the increasing share of renewable energy sources in the Brazilian Electricity System, this complex framework, expected to persist in the coming years and intensified by externalities such as climate change, pose additional challenges to the operation and planning of the National Interconnected System (SIN), in particular, challenges related to the pursuit of energy security and affordable energy tariffs. Based on a historical analysis of the development of the Brazilian electricity sector and the main challenges currently observed and debated within it, this thesis seeks to characterize, through an exploratory econometric model, the economic cost (price) of the flexibility and reliability (energy-security) required to maintain the balance between energy supply and demand. The research examines the institutional and regulatory evolution of the Brazilian electricity sector, discussing contracting mechanisms, the role of energy auctions, and the integration of new technologies over recent decades. Based on theoretical and documentary reviews, the study identifies the trade-offs between security of supply and tariff affordability, highlighting thermal generation as a central point of discussion. The work contributes to the debate on the development and planning of Brazil’s electricity matrix by emphasizing the challenges faced in the operation of the SIN and presenting a statistical-exploratory perspective on their economic impacts, with the expectation that the solutions to be implemented will preserve the fundamental pillars of the electricity sector: energy security, universal access and affordability.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/38070

Temas

EconomiaInfraestruturaMeio Ambiente

Palavras-chave

Setor elétrico brasileiroGeração termoelétricaGeração renovávelSegurança energéticaFlexibilidadeConfiabilidadeIntermitênciaOperação Sistema Interligado NacionalPlanejamento energéticoEncargo dos Serviços do SistemaBrazilian electricity sectorThermal generationRenewable generationEnergy securityFlexibilityReliabilityIntermittencyNational Interconnected System operationEnergy planningEnergy sector chargesEconomiaPolítica energéticaEnergia elétricaEnergia - Fontes alternativasCusto