Impactos da variação do custo de geração do setor hidrelétrico e seus reflexos na economiauma análise de equilíbrio geral computável

Resumo

Hydraulic energy has always played an important role in the Brazilian electric matrix and its generation costs represent a significant portion of the amount paid by the final consumer. Technological, environmental, operational and governmental factors contribute directly to this amount. This work measured how variations, positive or negative and at different levels, in the cost of hydroelectric energy generation affect the price paid by the final consumer and its impact on the Brazilian economy as a whole. The scenarios were simulated for a horizon of 5 (2025) and 10 (2030) years using a computable general equilibrium model. This model allows to compare the projections between the different scenarios, as well as with the scenarios projected by the National Energy Balance. The results show that an increase of between 2.5% and 7.5% or a decrease of 2.5% to 7.5% in the cost of hydroelectric power generation in the country has non-linear and little considerations in the energy price to the consumer Final. These results are due both to the fact that hydraulic energy is one of the least expensive and abundant sources in the country's electrical matrix, but with little capacity for expansion in the short and medium term, as well as the complex and regulated functioning of the Brazilian electricity sector. This complexity, on the one hand, guarantees stability and low price volatility in the market, but contributes to a short-term price signaling that reflects the marginal costs of more expensive and complementary sources.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2020

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/29844

Temas

EconomiaModelagem EconômicaInfraestrutura

Palavras-chave

Electricity marketGeneral balanceBrazilian electric sectorElectricity generationMercado de energia elétricaEquilíbrio geralSetor elétrico brasileiroGeração de energia elétricaEconomiaEnergia hidrelétrica - BrasilEnergia elétrica - CustosEnergia elétrica - ProduçãoEquilíbrio econômico