Impacto da transição demográfica sobre a arrecadação tributária no Brasiluma análise do aspecto federativo

Resumo

Several countries have been experiencing a process of population aging. In Brazil, this demographic process, according to Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics projections, reaching 24% in 2040 and 34% in 2060. Thus, the present study innovates when proposing the evaluation of the impact of population aging on tax revenue, with special attention to the analysis of the impact on the collection of taxes on consumption, since the consumption basket tends to be different between young and old people.  In order to do that, we use a 4-sector overlapping generation model (OLG) with 55 generations. The results suggest a reduction of output, consumption, working hours and investment.  Tax revenues would fall more than output, with a larger reduction in consumption taxes. However, we observe that local revenue is less affected, due to the increase in the consumption of services, induced by the process of population ageing.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2020

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/0101-41615012rcn

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/155829

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Temas

Finanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

Population agingOverlapping generations model (OLG)Tax revenueEnvelhecimento da populaçãoModelo de gerações sobrepostas (OLG)Receita fiscal