From ballots to bordersthe influence of political regimes on global trade policies

Resumo

Are left-wing governments protectionist? This study empirically investigates whether electoral victories by left-wing parties lead to the adoption of protectionist trade policies. We employ a regression discontinuity design to analyze 1,064 national elections, including presidential and legislative elections, across multiple countries from 1945 to 2018. Our findings reveal that left-wing administrations implement significantly more protectionist measures by increasing import tariffs and reducing import volumes while promoting exports to achieve trade surpluses. The findings reveal significant variations among political systems: left-wing governments in presidential systems tend to implement stronger protectionist measures for imports, while parliamentary systems experience the most substantial tariff increases under left-wing leadership. In contrast, semi-presidential systems uniquely witness a decrease in all three trade flow indicators—exports, imports, and trade-to-GDP ratios—differing from the pro-export policies adopted in the other two systems.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37123

Temas

EconomiaDados

Palavras-chave

Economia internacionalEconomia políticaProtecionismo comercialGovernos de esquerdaRegressão descontínuaInternational economicsPolitical economyTrade protectionismLeft-wing governmentsRegression discontinuity designEconomiaRelações econômicas internacionaisProtecionismo e livre câmbioDireita e esquerda (Ciência política)Política comercialAnálise de regressão