Enchentes no Rio Grande do Sulo que ensinam outros eventos extremos

Resumo

This study examines the economic literature on natural disasters, with a focus on floods, and discusses the external validity of these studies in relation to the case of Rio Grande do Sul in 2024. Using the analytical framework of Jacob Vigdor (The Economic Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, published in 2008), developed to analyze the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, the article evaluates the impact of floods on the real estate market in the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre. The model is adapted to assess the differential impact between flooded and non-flooded areas, predicting a potential reduction in the housing stock in the affected areas. The study concludes that, given the already stagnant economic and demographic conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, a swift recovery is unlikely, suggesting that lessons from the Katrina case may be valuable. Specifically, supporting the renovation of current buildings and investing in flood defenses seems preferable to adding new housing units.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2024

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/brua33art4

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/16388

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil - Rio Grande do Sul; 2024

Palavras-chave

Administração de DesastresEspeculação ImobiliáriaDesastresMercado imobiliárioEnchentes