Demand Forecasting model based on artificial neural networks for Passenger Transportation Projects

Resumo

Whereas passenger demand is one of the main risks in passenger transport infrastructure projects on track, this paper aims to propose a demand forecasting model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to contribute to the project management still in its early planning stages. For this, the design of ex post facto type was used in a descriptive research with quantitative approach, where the research group was composed by subway and train stations in the metropolitan region of São Paulo-Brazil. In total, 12 ANN were proposed architectures with 15 different configurations, totalling 180 training processes, testing and validation. For each architecture has been identified the lowest mean square error percentage obtained; and the best architecture, with a hidden layer, was performed relevance analysis by Garson method, the model 4 input variables: the population; the school enrolment; the number of jobs; and per capita income. With the proposed model, one expects to contribute to the theory by adding to demand forecasting models using a robust methodology and, for managers, serve as a tool in studies of economic and financial viability of these projects, still in its planning phase anticipated as an investment decision-making tool.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2021

Instituição

Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná - PUCPR

Fonte

urbe — Revista Brasileira de Gestão Urbana

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

Identificador

oai:ojs.periodicos.pucpr.br:article/28154

Palavras-chave

Project Management. Early Project Planning. Demand Forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks.