Common factors in Latin America's business cycles
Catão, Luiz
O documento é disponibilizado pela fonte de origem, que mantém a versão integral e as condições de uso.
Resumo
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external trade, fiscal and financial variables. The analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cyc1e chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that ali four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cyc1e volatility and persistence relative to advanced country benchmarks. Volatility changed considerably over time, however, being very high during early formative decades through the Great Depression, and again during the 1970s and ear1y 1980s, before declining sharply in three of the four countries. We also identify a sizeable common factor across the four economies which variance decompositions ascribe mostly to foreign interest rates and shocks to commodity terms of trade.
Ficha do documento
- Tipo
- Estudo
- Ano
- 2005
- Instituição
- Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia
- Fonte
- Repositório da FGV
- Idioma
- Inglês
- Acesso
- Não informado
- Identificador
- oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/12986
Conteúdos relacionados
- Artigo científicoDeterioração das expectativas resulta em queda do indicador de clima econômico da América LatinaFundação Getulio Vargas · 2025
- EstudoEffects of fiscal consolidations in Latin AmericaEscola de Economia de São Paulo · 2016
- EstudoPolitical budget cycles and democratization in Latin America, 1973-2008Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP) · 2010
- DissertaçãoReforma tributária do consumo e preços de alimentosFundação Getulio Vargas · 2026
