Ciclos políticos e eleitorais na execução do programa Bolsa Família em nível municipal

Resumo

We investigate the existence of political and electoral cycles in the implementation of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) at the municipal level. The role played by the municipal governments in PBF is fundamental as they are responsible for enrolling the families in the Federal Government’s Single Registry for Social Programs (CadÚnico) and for guaranteeing and supervising whether the criteria of the PBF are met or not by the families. As the mayor can use the PBF to benefit himself or his nominee in an election, we estimate the effect of political and electoral variables on the municipal supply of the PBF, using panel data models controlling for municipality and region-year fixed effects. Our results indicate that mayors behave strategically, increasing the Bolsa
 Familia’s supply in electoral periods by something between 2.0% and 141.8%, depending on the region. We find that the intensities of electoral cycles in the North, Central-West and Northeast regions are above the estimate for Brazil, while those for the Southeast and South regions are below. This result can be explained by the greater asymmetry of information as a consequence of the lower level of transparency and greater reliance on public resources in the municipalities of the North, Central West and Northeast regions. Lastly, we find that the political cycles, resulting from the party’s alignment of the mayor with the governor and president, have much less impact on the PBF than the electoral cycles.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2020

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/ppev50n1art3

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/13072

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Políticas PúblicasGovernançaGestão Municipal

Palavras-chave

Programas SociaisPolítica SocialSistemas EleitoraisCiclos políticos e eleitoraisPrograma Bolsa Família (PBF)Governos municipais