Beyond Local EffectsSpatial Spillovers of Transportation Infrastructure and Deforestation in Brazil

Resumo

This paper examines the relationship between transportation infrastructure and deforestation in Brazil. We combine exploratory spatial data analysis with standard econometric, spatial econometric, and machine learning using spatially disaggregated data covering all Brazilian biomes. Exploratory analysis reveals a strong spatial concentration of both deforestation and transportation networks, particularly in the Centro-Sul and Northeast regions. Conventional econometric results indicate a positive conditional association between transportation infrastructure and deforestation after controlling for a broad set of structural and institutional characteristics. However, explicitly accounting for spatial effects highlights the central role of spatial spillovers, interactions, and spatially correlated confounders, suggesting that the environmental impacts of transportation infrastructure extend beyond local boundaries. Finally, results from the machine learning evaluation show that incorporating spatial structure substantially improves out ofsample predictive accuracy. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of spatially informed empirical approaches for understanding, anticipating, and monitoring deforestation patterns associated with infrastructure expansion.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2026

Instituição

Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos

Fonte

Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.54766/rberu.v20i2.1215

Identificador

oai:ojs.emnuvens.com.br:article/1215

Licença

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Palavras-chave

DeforestationTransportation InfrastructureSpatial Econometricswater resourceMachine Learning