Um Imposto sobre o desenvolvimentoa deterioração da malha rodoviária federal como imposto implícito – evidências a partir de um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Resumo

This dissertation quantifies the economic impacts of the conservation condition of the federal highway network under the management of the Brazilian National Department of Transport Infrastructure (DNIT) on Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), treating transport infrastructure as a structural determinant of allocative efficiency. The analysis builds on the premise that pavement deterioration operates as a transversal productive friction, distorting relative prices and inducing patterns of resource reallocation that are consistent with allocative efficiency losses discussed in the misallocation literature. Methodologically, the study adapts an inter-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated to the 2018 base year and implemented in a static comparative framework, integrating information on pavement condition (Surface Condition Index – SCI), road user costs (RUC) estimated through the HDM-4 model, and freight flows derived from the National Logistics Plan (PNL). Exogenous shocks to transport costs are used to simulate counterfactual scenarios of infrastructure improvement and severe deterioration, assessing their effects on aggregate GDP as well as on regional, state-level, macrosectoral, and sectoral outcomes. The results reveal an asymmetric and nonlinear economic response: while improvements in road conditions generate marginal GDP gains, severe deterioration of the federal network leads to immediate and substantial losses, amounting to several billion reais. Regional and sectoral analyses indicate stronger economic penalties in the North and South regions, particularly in states such as Pará, Mato Grosso, and Rio Grande do Sul, and in transport-intensive macrosectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. Under the comparative-static framework adopted, adverse logistical shocks are predominantly absorbed as output losses in the short run. The findings indicate that the economic value of federal highway conservation lies primarily in mitigating the cost of inaction, as pavement deterioration functions as an implicit tax that erodes allocative efficiency and generates persistent output losses in the simulated equilibrium, highlighting preventive maintenance as a strategic instrument of economic policy to preserve competitiveness, reduce regional disparities, and sustain economic development.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Outro

Ano

2026

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/20240

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Modelagem EconômicaInfraestruturaTransportesDesenvolvimento RegionalDesenvolvimento Econômico

Palavras-chave

Infraestrutura do TransporteInfraestrutura rodoviáriaCustos logísticosEquilíbrio geral computávelEficiência alocativaRoad infrastructureLogistics costsComputable general equilibriumAllocative efficiency