Trade integration and climate regulation in Latin Americaregulatory profiles and provisions in trade agreements

Resumo

This paper maps the climate regulatory fragmentation of 25 Latin American and Caribbean countries in international trade, combining climate measures notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO) through the Environmental Database (EDB) with climate provisions in trade agreements from the Trade and Environment Database (TREND) covering the period 2009 to 2021. A cluster analysis identifies four trade-climate insertion profiles: agro-forestry, agroindustrial, minerals, and fossil fuels. The countries whose exports are most sensitive to trading partners’ climate regulation are those that have incorporated the fewest climate commitments in their agreements, suggesting an asymmetry that conditions the prospects for South American regulatory convergence. Panel models with country fixed effects and a Mundlak decomposition show that the accumulation of trade agreements is positively associated with climate notification, but this association operates through the technical regulations channel (TBT), consistent with institutional diffusion through agreement networks, while the agricultural channel shows no association with trade integration and responds to external regulatory pressure. Countries integrated into value chains with regulated partners, particularly through Central America Free Trade Agreement-Dominican Republic (CAFTA-DR) and United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), adapt through the bilateral route, while Mercosur members operate through reactive adaptation independently of their agreements. The between-cluster share of variance in climate depth rose from 6% in 2009 to 60% in 2021, documenting a transition from relative homogeneity to mutually distant regulatory blocs structured along productive insertion, with implications for the debate on whether South American integration can build a coordinated climate agenda or each country will negotiate bilaterally with the European Union and the United States.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2026

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/rtm40art6

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/20753

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

América Latina

Temas

Desenvolvimento Regional

Palavras-chave

Acordos ComerciaisBarreiras não TarifáriasIntegração RegionalClimate regulationTrade agreementsNon-tariff measuresRegional integrationF International Economics::F1 Trade::F13 Trade Policy - International Trade OrganizationsQ Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics - Environmental and Ecological Economics::Q5 Environmental Economics::Q56 Environment and Development - Environment and Trade - Sustainability - Environmental Accounts and Accounting - Environmental Equity - Population GrowthF International Economics::F1 Trade::F15 Economic IntegrationQ Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics - Environmental and Ecological Economics::Q5 Environmental Economics::Q54 Climate - Natural Disasters and Their Management - Global WarmingRegulação climáticaMedidas não tarifáriasRegulación climáticaAcuerdos comercialesMedidas no arancelariasIntegración regional