Testes de cointegração e um modelo de correção de erro para a balança comercial brasileira

Resumo

The purpose of the article is to report the results ofcointegration tests and to present an error correctionrepresentation for the Brazilian trade balance. The main assumptions of the simple theoretical model adopted in the paper were validated by the cointegration tests, which suggested that the trade balance is related in the long run to the real exchange rate and to the relative pressure of demand, the latter being given by the evolution of domestic income vis-a-vis world income. The error correction models indicated that changes in the levels of domestic and world income and the correction of past deviations from the long-run equilibrium are the main forces determining the short-run dynamics of the Brazilian trade balance.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

1993

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.11606/1980-53572312ahbf

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/158903

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Palavras-chave

balança comercialraízes unitáriascointegraçãomodelo de correção de errotrade balanceunits rootscointegrationerror correction model