Retornos dos preços dos ativos Valeuma análise do comportamento histórico face à conjuntura econômica

Resumo

The stocks of multinational companies, with a presence and operations in several countries, have the potential to be affected by the world economy in various ways and are more susceptible to global market volatility than other companies. In this context, this paper aims to study the influence of the main global economic indicators on the profitability of the shares of Vale S.A., a Brazilian mining company with operations in more than 20 countries. To achieve the proposed objective, the multiple linear regression methodology was used, and the backward method was applied to a sample consisting of 7 global economic indicators in the period between 2008 and 2020. The results show that Chinese GDP, global inflation and iron ore prices in the spot market are determinants in stock returns in the period analyzed, suggesting Vale's growth along with China's growth and that the interest rate indicates a cycle of monetary tightening with economic downturn and negative effects on price and consequently on stock returns. On the other hand, the country risk was analyzed and did not show an impact on stock returns, which we inferred to be due to the diversified operation of the company.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2023

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/39260

Temas

EconomiaDados

Palavras-chave

Rentabilidade de ativosValeIndicadores econômicos globaisStock retunsGlobal economic indicatorsEconomiaAtivos financeirosGlobalização - Aspectos econômicosVale (Firma)Indicadores econômicosInflação