O efeito das limitações de recebimento de óleo diesel nos terminais marítimos no PIB potencial do Brasil

Resumo

This master thesis develops a study related to the country's energy security. With the main focus on the insufficiency of the port structure, the study evaluates the possibility of this structural deficiency may cause macroeconomic impacts of significant proportions, due to a 'blackout' in the transport sector. The 'blackout' would result from the shortage of diesel oil. The demand for diesel oil is projected from the estimated GDP growth and the elasticity of demand for diesel oil. The supply capacity is estimated considered as the sum of domestic refining capacity plus the import capacity through the ports. The results indicate a depletion of port capacity to increase imports. As a result of the economic recession in Brazilian economy between the years 2014 and 2017, the refineries operated in 2017 with approximately 80% of their declared refining capacity. However, considering the projected Brazilian economy growth in force on beginning of 2018, demand for diesel oil should exceed supply capacity in 2025, in the more moderate growth scenario or in 2021, in the scenario of a faster economic growth. In face of the imminent risk of a 'blackout' in the transport sector, which could be caused by the shortage of diesel oil, this study proposes short-term policies to contain the problem. It proposes also medium and long-term policies for the effective mitigation of the risk of diesel oil shortages in the Brazilian economy.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2018

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/22974

Temas

EconomiaTransportesDesenvolvimento Econômico

Palavras-chave

PortosLogísticaDieselPetróleoBiocombustíveisPortsLogisticOilPetroleumEconomiaPortos - BrasilPolítica energéticaDesenvolvimento econômico