Municípios brasileiros de desempenho econômico extraordináriocaracterização e análise exploratória

Resumo

This paper proposes a practical definition and exploratory analysis of Brazilian municipalities with “extraordinary economic performance” (DEM) in 5-year sliding windows, from 2003 to 2018. These municipalities are identified and segmented in municipalities with sustainable and unsustainable performances and led by four different economic sectors: industry, agriculture, services and services administrative. An inspiration to this text is the so called “Positive Deviance” methodology (Boy, et al., 2020) that has shown that outliers can and often do contain valuable or unexpected knowledge (Aguinis, et al., 2013). It uses data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) to classify the DEM into 8 groups, comprising the combination of the sustainability indicator and the sector responsible for growth. After applying the methodology, 744 distinct municipalities are obtained, framed in at least one window as MDE, which pass to the exploratory analysis phase, which is subdivided into descriptive analysis steps, in order to illustrate the main trends in the data and in observing situations that lead to new facts, analysis of simple linear regressions, to estimate and infer the relationship between the percentage changes in GDP of the fastest growing sector and the percentage changes in the variables of interest, and a case study, with the aim to illustrate the situations presented by descriptive analyzes and regressions. As a result, it was possible to observe that the agricultural and livestock MDEs tend to have a low population, the episodic ones are concentrated in the states of MG and SP and have a very low correlation with the other variables, while the sustainable ones are already concentrated in the RS and MT states and present a certain correlation with some variables. Industry and services DEMs tend to be concentrated in the Southeast region and have a high correlation with several variables. Finally, the administrative services MOU tend to have a low level of HDI, GDP per capita and population receive government assistance and high rates of sustainability. In addition to the quantitative results, the work also presents 7 MDE that illustrate the evolution of GDP, GDP value added by sector, total revenues and some sub-accounts, number of companies and bonds.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Outro

Ano

2021

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/19006

Licença

Licença Padrão Ipea

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

EconomiaDesenvolvimento EconômicoGestão Municipal

Palavras-chave

Crescimento EconômicoProdução AgropecuáriaEconomia IndustrialMunicípiosOutliers interessantesDiscrepantes positivosHeterogeneidadeAgropecuáriaInteresting outliersPositive devianceHeterogeneity