Influência das principais commodities agropecuárias e de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre os preços da terra agrícola no Brasil

Resumo

The paper objects to investigate whether the price of Brazilian rural lands depends on major agricultural commodity prices and exportation volumes – principally those linked to Brazilian agricultural production value, as well as macroeconomics variables, such as basic interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and availability of subsidized agricultural credit. For this purpose, it was considered agricultural production of cotton, coffee, sugarcane (and its main derived products, sugar and ethanol), corn and soybean, cattle production and the industrial production of bleached hardwood kraft pulp focusing on its main raw material, the reforested eucalyptus plantations. Results were aligned with previous studies, where empirical evidence was found that rural land prices present a cointegration with some of the crop, livestock and forestry variables mentioned above, mainly in states with agriculture and / or forestry aptitude. On the macroeconomic side, basic interest rate was the only variable that presented cointegration with land prices for all states under assessment; exchange rate and availability of subsidized rural credit were not statistically significant variables. For the States with significant participation in Brazil´s agroforestry products balance, the study concludes that it is possible to model a long-term equilibrium between price of rural lands and variables highlighted above, in a way that can be used by investors as a projection tool to help in the decision processes and to evaluate potential impacts on the value of their assets. The improvement of this study was to test the hypothesis of cointegration for each of the States of the federation.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2016

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/15540

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Land marketAgricultureLivestockCommoditiesRural land appreciationCointegrationForestryMercado de terrasAgriculturaPecuáriaSilviculturaApreciação de terra ruralEconomiaSolo rural - Uso - BrasilCointegraçãoBolsa de mercadorias