Indicadores financeiros trimestrais para prever falências nos setores de mineração, óleo e gás

Resumo

The objective of this study is to identify the best models for predicting bankruptcy of companies from the mining, oil and gas industries between 1998 and 2017. It was estimated a logistic regression model to predict business failure given their financial indicators. It was estimated models with yearly and quarterly information figures using figures from the last three years, last two years, and also last one year prior to the year just before the formalization of the bankruptcy event. The results show that the best model is the one using the most recent information, from the last one year, and using quarterly available data. The ratios total equity to total liabilities and cash flow from investments to total liabilities are the most important indicators to predict bankruptcy, even though only the first one is significant in all models. The best model correctly predicted 79.1% among all firms and 85.5% of the firms that went bankrupt.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2018

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/24613

Temas

EconomiaDesenvolvimento EconômicoDados

Palavras-chave

Bankruptcy predictionFinancial ratiosMiningOil and gasPrevisão de falênciaIndicadores financeirosMineraçãoÓleo e gásEconomiaFalênciaIndicadores econômicosÓleo - IndústriaGás - IndústriaMinas e recursos minerais - Indústria