Impactos de eventos políticos na Bolsa de Valores Brasileira (2002-2022)

Resumo

This study investigates the impacts of political events on the Brazilian stock market between 2002 and 2022, focusing on the occurrence of abnormal returns through the application of the event study methodology. Three main categories of political phenomena were analyzed: presidential elections; public statements and institutional crises involving government authorities; and political connections of companies listed on B3. The empirical results indicate that political scandals and government interventions in state-owned enterprises generate significant negative reactions, while elections produce effects conditioned by the perception of disruption or continuity in economic policy. The findings also reveal that the perceived political orientation of public agents, the degree of institutional predictability, and the type of signal transmitted to the market are key determinants of investor reactions. This study contributes to the literature by proposing an analytical typology that distinguishes different manifestations of political phenomena and their effects on asset prices, with practical implications for political risk pricing and portfolio management in emerging markets.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37633

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Eventos políticosMercado acionárioRetornos anormaisRisco políticoEstudo de eventosBrasilPolitical eventsStock marketAbnormal returnsPolitical riskEvent studyBrazilEconomiaEconomia - Aspectos políticosMercado de capitais - BrasilRisco (Economia)Ações (Finanças) - Preços