Impacto de mudanças no emprego do setor público sobre o mercado de trabalho localevidências para as mesorregiões brasileiras de 2003 a 2010

Resumo

We estimate the parameter of the impact of an increase in the public sector employment on private sector employment in the two terms of President Lula (2003 to 2010), taking the formal labor market in 137 mesoregions and 20 subsectors of economic activity in Brazil. We adapt the instrumental variable method of Faggio and Overman (2014) to a panel data econometric model that allows the impact parameter to vary across the two President Lula’s terms. The results showed that under the contractionary fiscal policy of the Lula’s first term the impact was crowding out, but under the expansionary fiscal policy of the Lula’s second term, the impact was multiplier. Moreover, the change in the public employment affected the sectorial composition of employment in Brazil in the short run, as we found crowding out and multiplier effects for the first and second Lula terms in the tradable goods (industry) and non tradable (construction and services) sectors of the Brazilian economy.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2018

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/0101-4161481377amv

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/121745

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Temas

EconomiaGestão PúblicaFinanças PúblicasDados

Palavras-chave

Labor marketPublic sectorPanel dataInstrumental variablemercado de trabalhosetor públicodados em painelvariável instrumental