Fatores que impactam o uso recorrente do cheque especialanálise com modelo de sobrevivência

Resumo

The overdraft facility, known in Brazil as cheque especial, is a form of consumer credit designed to provide immediate liquidity for emergency and short-term needs. Due to its elevated interest rates compared to other personal credit lines, prolonged use of this facility may result in excessive indebtedness, delinquency, and, in more severe cases, over-indebtedness. This study employs the Cox semi-parametric proportional hazards model to investigate the determinants of recurrent overdraft usage. Based on a longitudinal dataset comprising microdata from 179,000 consumers between 2018 and 2024, the analysis incorporates both time-invariant individual characteristics, such as income, education level, and age, and time-varying macroeconomic variables, including food inflation, unemployment rate, and changes in real income. The results indicate that lower income and lower educational attainment are associated with a significantly higher risk of recurrent overdraft usage. Additionally, adverse macroeconomic conditions, particularly increases in food prices and unemployment, intensify this risk, underscoring the relevance of both individual vulnerability and the broader economic environment in explaining persistent credit usage patterns.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37571

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Cheque especialUso recorrente do cheque especialEndividamentoImpacto de variáveis macroeconômicas no créditoOverdraft facilityRecurrent credit usageConsumer indebtednessMacroeconomic determinantsSurvival analysisEconomiaInadimplência (Finanças)Crédito bancárioAvaliação de riscosComportamento do consumidor